There are several ways to make decisions. You could flip a coin. Shake a Magic 8-Ball, or you could use “eenie-meenie-minie-moe.” While these decision-making tools can be fun to use for minor choices, you shouldn’t use them for challenging decisions. Fortunately, some tools help you make a final choice without having to rely on chance or children’s toys.
Decision-making tools can help you sift through the difficulties that prevent you from making a choice. You should not make a significant decision lightly. It is essential to look at the options, the consequences, and the alternatives. If your choice involves other people, you should consider how your selection affects them.
There are systematic techniques for making decisions. Leaders from all industries use decision-making tools as guides to make choices that will benefit them and their people. Experts have honed these strategies, so they are practical and efficient. Plans that do not work are relegated to the trash bin, while those that do work are continually evolving.
When Decision-Making Tools are Needed
If you are looking for a restaurant to go for lunch, you do not need to use a decision-making tool. You just pick. But, some situations arise that require more than a quick choice. These situations are usually involved with several elements to ponder. The factors and consequences have risks involved; someone or something could be permanently affected by choice.
Tough decisions also involve a level of uncertainty. When you make a tough choice, the results could be positive or negative or somewhere in the middle. The uncertainty could also be affected by not knowing all of the facts going into the choice. The decision you need to make could have several alternatives, and those all have different consequences, elements, and variability.
The final reason you should use decision-making tools is when you cannot predict how people will react. If you are deciding on pizza toppings and you know your friend doesn’t like pineapple, you don’t pick that topping. But, if you are unsure of how people will react or how the decisions will affect people in your life, you shouldn’t make a snap decision.
Basic Decision-Making Tools
There are several tools that anyone can use to make a decision. You can use them in a variety of situations, from deciding on a vacation destination to diagnosing an illness. The methods might vary, but they are all rational and thoughtful in their approaches.
For nearly all of these methods, the underlying similarity is that you must gather as much information as possible before making a choice. However, more information is not always helpful; it can complicate the process.
Consider the process of picking paint color for a wall. You might want a shade of blue, but when there are 100 different shades, the process becomes complicated. But if you are using information to pick a vacation destination, having several pieces of information can help. You want to look at prices, activities, transportation, and weather before you commit to a location.
You can use these essential tools in personal and professional decision-making endeavors. You can customize them to your particular situation using logic and reasoning.
T-Charts
The basic T-chart is a useful tool when you have two possible choices. Many people use this tool when they have to debate the pros and cons, or to-do or not-to-do choices. Draw a large T on a piece of paper. The horizontal line should be near the top of the page, and the vertical line should go from the top to the bottom.
Put one choice on the left side of the top of the horizontal line and the other option on the right side. Then, below the horizontal line, start building lists that support each choice. Some people choose a column based on which list is longer. Some people prioritize the items in the list and use numbers to create value. Then, they pick the side with the most amount.
The benefit of this tool is that you can see the logic behind making a choice. Most t-charts only have two columns, but you could add columns if you have three or four options. These can be customized to meet your needs.
Software
In many industries, software is used to help support decisions. Medical professionals can use software to help make diagnoses. The software asks questions about symptoms and creates a diagnosis based on the answers the professional chooses.
Decision support systems (DSS) collects data so it can be analyzed and manipulated. Some systems can learn from choices. When professionals use DSS, they are less likely to make mistakes that can exacerbate problems and increase costs.
Visual Chart
Another interesting tool is the PMI or Plus-Minus-Interesting chart. For this tool, you simply create a three-column table with plus, minus, and interesting atop each column. Then you fill in your thoughts. If you want to create value, you give each idea a numerical value. Add up each column and make your decision.
A visual chart is an excellent tool to use when debating the pros and cons and ideas that don’t fit into those two categories. Visual decision-making tools are useful, but their value is only based on the information put into the charts. If you cannot fill the columns with logical thoughts, it will be challenging to make an insightful decision.
Intuitive Models
Some people prefer to make decisions by following their instincts and intuition. This might not be the best choice for decisions that are life-and-death or of the utmost importance. But, when nothing else seems to work, this can be an option.
Intuitive decision-making tools can be something as simple as flipping a coin and leaving the decision to chance. This might be a good option if you can’t decide between vanilla or chocolate ice cream, but not necessarily if you are choosing whether or not to quit your job. You could also use intuitive tools like astrology or tarot cards, as they do not rely on logic, but on chance.
Structured Decision-Making Tools
When you have serious choices to make simple tools might not be enough. Without a precise technique, a snap decision might end up as a failure. Unfortunately, complicated decisions are tough to make because the options are not all available at the beginning of the process. This is why vital decisions require time.
To be sure your choice is the best one available, you need to have a logical process that is highly structured. Outcomes need to be pondered, and in many cases, they, too, need to be put through a decision-making process.
When you begin working through a structured decision-making process, you have numerous analytical tools at your disposal. There are several that you can use at each stage. Remember that they all take time. Each one can take up hours that you might want to spend on other tasks. So, choose wisely. You should only use tools that will help you get through each stage.
These seven steps are recommendations. You can combine them, or you can draw them out when necessary. Some decisions require extensive time. The ultimate goal is to make a choice, share it, and implement it. How you get there is up to the group and the stakeholders.
Organize a Productive Group
Your first step in making a decision is to find a group that will help you make the decision. In most organizations, decisions affect several people, so several people should be involved in the process. You should include those who have to implement it in the future. Those who have a leadership role in the decision should also be in the group.
In some cases, a stakeholder group might be tasked with building the decision-making group. You might have several small groups choosing a representative to join the decision-making group. No matter what technique you use, the members who are making the decision should have direct involvement in the steps, and the outcome. This will forge commitment.
If you have difficulty rationalizing the formation of a group, use a tool called the Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model. This tool helps you better understand the steps you need to get going on the decision-making process.
Once you have formed your group, you should recognize the value of everyone’s input. Using a brainstorming tool like the Charette Procedures allows everyone the opportunity to talk and to be taken seriously. No ideas should be rejected on the outset. People should be heard, and their ideas recognized.
Unpack the Situation
The next step involves investigation, specifically by breaking down the situation. In most significant cases, You must fully understand several factors. Usually, the elements are interrelated. For example, one change might affect a specific department, but another change might affect a different one. Both changes might impact customers.
Without thoroughly investigating the situation and the trickle-down effects that could happen, decisions can be disastrous. The first step in this process is to define the problem clearly, then determine if the problem is worth solving. Continue to ask “Why” about the problem until you get to the root of the problem.
After your group knows why the problem exists and what needs to be solved, look at how the problem will affect people in and out of your organization. Look at the problem from different perspectives: customers, implementers, processors, global, ownership, and environmental.
When you look at the problem from different perspectives, your group will be able to see how valuable the solution really is. The need to make a smart decision becomes real and vital.
Create Alternatives
The key to making the correct decision is to pursue the alternatives. The more that you can find and investigate, the odds are better that you will make the best choice. It might not be easy to create alternative outcomes or options. But, this brainstorming task will develop ideas that you would not have thought of on your own.
With all of the alternatives your group creates, you will be able to look at the problem from a variety of angles. The other options will inspire you to come up with even more ideas. You will notice that you eventually start to think differently, and so will the members of your group. Innovation begins at this point.
When we stay within our usual patterns of thought, we continue to create normal, often uninspired ideas. You can brainstorm in a standard way, but why not try reverse brainstorming? This is where you look at the cause of the problem or the solution that is opposite to what you would typically do.
Since it is difficult to get everyone to participate in a typical brainstorming session, reverse brainstorming can get more people involved. It also removes the chance for groupthink. An example of reverse brainstorming would be to ask your group to create an idea that would force customers to turn to another organization. What would make them leave your business?
WIth reverse brainstorming, you start to break down the problems and look at reality. What would make customers leave? And what can you do to stop it? Then, watch the ideas start to flow. Write them down. Notice what comes from them. With the negative, you get to the positives. Or, at least to innovation that leads to positives.
If reverse brainstorming does not work, you can ask other people to join your group. Often, a fresh face or two can help bring out more ideas. Just be sure that the new people fit into the group. You could also ask your current members to approach the task from a different perspective; for example, a teacher could look at it from the perspective of an administrator.
Analyze the Options
After you have created a list of alternatives, the next step is to analyze those. What will happen if you choose one of them? Look closely at the risk and rewards, the practicality and viability, and the underlying issues with them.
When groups make decisions, most people recognize that there is a risk involved. Any change can backfire, so you and your group must look closely at the potential risks of each option. If you do not analyze the risks, you could be setting up your organization for costly repairs and management issues.
There are several risk-analysis tools that you can use to rate and understand the probability of them happening. You must realize that unexpected consequences can come from your choice, so you have to investigate those, too. Thoroughly look at the risks from as many perspectives as possible.
Create as many different questions as possible about the options. If you can answer them, then you have a good understanding of the problem and the issues that could come from the solution. Eventually, your group will see a beneficial option. You should also see opportunities that will not work at all.
Make Your Choice
After you have analyzed the options, it is time to choose one. Hopefully, your group can narrow down the choices to one. But, if you cannot, then the process will be more difficult. You might have to spend more time evaluating the options.
If the choice comes down to money, you might want to use a decision tree. The different nodes and branches can help you see where the money will go and if the choice is financially viable.
Your group might have difficulty choosing if the members do not want to share their choices verbally. You might have to figure out ways to get everyone’s input. You can do this with various multi-voting techniques where members do not have to choose just one option. They can rank them.
You might also want to consider anonymous voting. Some people prefer to have a say, but not be heard. Your group might not even want to be known to the rest of the organization. If this is preferable to the group, it is wise to respect their choice.
There are pros and cons to group members being anonymous. They could be less committed to the process if their names are not on the final decision. However, they could be more likely to be honest and open if they are anonymous.
Conduct a Final Evaluation
Once you have made your decision, you should conduct one more evaluation. You might feel ready to share the choice with the organization, but you don’t want to jump the gun. Rushing to implementation is not usually a wise choice. Instead, look closely at what problems can come from your choice so you can avoid making them.
Decisions are only as strong as the people who make them. And people make mistakes. So, look as closely as you can at all of the potential minor flaws and major disasters that could arise. You might have unforeseen issues in the decision-making process. You might have group members who weren’t fully involved.
Reevaluate the facts and the processes you used. Do not rush through the final evaluation. Double-check your points, as if you are a journalist. Look at bias, too. It could be an excellent time to involve stakeholders so they can look at the facts and potential issues with fresh eyes. Since most of us are biased, you must evaluate this aspect of the decision.
Share Your Choice
After you have evaluated and reevaluated, it’s time to share your choice with the stakeholders. But, don’t just tell them, share it in a memorable way.
Your presentation should include the choice and how you arrived at it. Showcase the process and all the steps the group took to arrive at the final decision. Talk about the benefits of the choice and how you evaluated the pros and cons that supported your choice.
You can also share the risks you evaluated. Explain how the organization can overcome any potential issues that come from implementing the decision. The stakeholders and the rest of the organization must understand that you used everything in your human power to make a choice.
At this point, when you are showing the decision, your organization needs to recognize that this is the moment when they should be asking questions. They should also review the plans with plenty of annotations. It is much less expensive to find mistakes now than after the decision has been fully implemented.
Problems with Bias
Bias is an issue with any type of decision making. These biases have evolved over time, especially as we need to use our brains to make rational decisions rather than fight-or-flight choices. It doesn’t take long before cognitive bias gets in the way of nearly everything we do, especially regarding analyzing evidence, evaluating options, and making logical choices.
These biases can get in the way of making a rational choice. We might try our best to remain open-minded, but in too many instances, our minds have already decided. These can affect our decisions to implement something new or to get involved in something that already exists.
Anchoring
With this type of bias, we stick to a number. Anchoring is often used by businesses that decide people must buy two to get a reasonable price. Or that customers are limited to buying three items. With anchoring, customers believe that they need to buy all three or they need to get two, even though they get the same low price if they buy one.
As you make your decision, consider whether you are attempting to affect the way that people think. Intentions can be affected by simple language. We might carry those anchors into other decisions that are unrelated.
Availability “Hands-on” Learning
The human brain is amazing in its ability to look at numbers. We enjoy analyzing probability and applying it to events. Unfortunately, as we evaluate numbers and the likelihood of them, we look at the significant events and tie them to ourselves.
Consider how rare plane crashes are, but consider how afraid humans are of them. Also, consider how unafraid humans are of car crashes, which happen at a much higher clip than plane crashes. We are biased toward the fear of significant events happening to us.
So, when you are evaluating a decision, look at the actual numbers. Not at how the numbers feel.
Confirmation Bias
We like what we like, and we don’t want to change. Our brains become wired to particular opinions. Eventually, changing those opinions is incredibly tricky. In fact, it is nearly impossible. If you always go to Orlando for vacation, it can be challenging to try a new vacation destination.
As you work through a decision-making process, it can be tough to overcome confirmation bias, which is why so many organizations will have groups make significant decisions. Individuals are more likely to succumb to confirmation bias, and therefore, nothing will change.
Framing Bias
Another easy way to create bias is through the presentation of the material. Consider the way that Steve Jobs presented his latest ideas. All of the elements he used were designed to affect the sales of the products he was pitching. His products weren’t cheap, but people did not care, because the product was fresh, and so was the guy who designed them.
You can avoid framing bias if you look honestly at any risk associated with an idea. Do not look at how the information is presented; look at what is displayed.
Halo Effect
People who we like tend to have a halo of positivity around them. This happens because the human brain likes orderliness. It can be difficult for the brain to attach opposite thoughts to something that it once enjoyed. So, the recommendations that people make good first impressions are important.
Once a positive impression is made, the impact remains. The halo effect makes it difficult to see negatives in that person. The same goes for a negative reaction. Once the bad mojo is there, it doesn’t go away. This explains why so many people continue to like or dislike certain politicians.
The halo effect can affect decision making. When you have a positive thought about an outcome, it can be challenging to take in a contradiction to that thought. If a company you like has had success with a decision, then it has to work for your organization, too. Right? The halo might blind you to the actual possibilities.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
All too often, we accept ideas simply because we’ve lived with them for so long. Investing time and money into something does not mean you should still do it. You may have spent six months making a decision. But, just because you spent six months on a choice doesn’t mean you have to make a choice, especially if no good ones exist.
The best way to avoid this bias is to be as critical as possible. Your group might have been tasked with making a choice. But if the right decision does not exist, the group should not be forced to create one. Making the wrong choice can be more expensive than not choosing at all.